后常规科学视阈下气候科学不确定性研究

Solutions of the Uncertainty of Climate Science in the Perspective of Post-Normal Science

20世纪以来,常规科学无力应对诸如气候变化这样的复杂问题提出的新挑战,传统气候科学中大量不确定性的存在严重影响了科学决策的进程。20世纪末诞生的后常规科学可以说是对以气候变化为代表的政策相关问题的回应与解答。在后常规科学中,我们可以找到处理气候科学不确定性、提高科学信息质量、促进科学决策的有效途径。

Since 20th century, normal science has faced a new challenge in that it must provide its best knowledge to support the urgent policy- making concerning, e.g. the climate change. However, this knowledge unfortunately often can host high uncertainties as the science is complex, which has seriously affected the scientific decision - making process. The post - normal science has enhanced the problem -solving in the （climate change） issue, which was first formulated in the late 20th century. We can find the effective ways of handing the uncertainty of climate science, improving the quality of scientific information and promoting scientific decision.