信息共享下库存量牛鞭效应的影响因素研究

Factors affecting bullwhip effect of inventory under information sharing

目前的研究多从供应链上游角度出发考虑传统牛鞭效应,而本文从供应链下游的角度研究库存量牛鞭效应得到了不一样的管理学启示.在需求函数方面,建立的需求模型包括市场规模、价格敏感性系数等更有现实意义的要素.在此,本文建立了包括一个零售商和一个制造商的简单两级供应链,得出了制造商在采用补充至订货点策略和最小均方差预测技术,在两种不同的信息共享模式下的库存量牛鞭效应表达式,并对他们的影响因素进行了分析.而且通过数值分析对模型进行了验证并得到新的结果.通过研究发现,信息共享能够显著降低制造商的库存量牛鞭效应;零售商和制造商的库存量牛鞭效应都不受市场规模的影响;零售商的库存量牛鞭效应在一定条件下不存在;相比于零售商提前期,制造商提前期对制造商的库存量牛鞭效应影响更大.同时,价格敏感性系数、价格自相关系数等因素对制造商库存量牛鞭效应也有不同程度的影响.

Many studies investigate the traditional bullwhip effect from the viewpoint of the upstream inventory plan. However, this paper studies the inventory bullwhip effect from the supply chain downstream perspective and derives new managerial implications. More practical factors, such as market scale, price sensitivity coeffi- cient, etc. are modeled into the demand function. A simple supply chain including one retailer and one manu- facturer is constructed, who adopts the order-up-to policy and MMSE technique. There are two types of infor- mation sharing between the retailer and the manufacturer. The expressions of inventory bullwhip effects of the manufacturer with different types of information sharing are given, and the factors influencing bullwhip effects are analyzed. A numerical analysis is applied to test our model and some new findings are derived. The resuhs indicate that ： 1 ） information 2） 3） sharing can significantly reduce the manufacturer＇ s bullwhip effect of inventory, neither the retailer＇ s bullwhip effect of inventory nor the manufacturer＇ s is influenced by the market scale, the retailer＇ s bullwhip effect of inventory will not exist under some special conditions, 4） compared with the retailer＇ s lead time, the manufacturer＇ s lead time affects the manufacturer＇ s bullwhip effect of inventory more dramatically, 5 ） the price sensitivity coefficient and price correlation coefficient also have impacts on the bullwhip effect.