基于遗憾理论的有限理性租赁决策分析

Limited rational leasing or buying based on regret theory

随着设备技术更新和市场需求波动加剧,投资者需要在不确定情形下选择租赁还是购买的投资决策以获得生产能力。由于投资者的有限理性,传统意义上的概率预期最优方案可能偏离实际最优方案。基于心理学和行为科学,针对投资者在不确定环境下规避遗憾的决策行为特征,本文应用最小最大相对遗憾理论建立租赁决策模型,并设计了租赁投资决策的有限理性固定决策规则。分析结果显示该策略相对最优策略的相对遗憾小于1,并且有限理性租赁策略案例应用分析证明了本文方法的实际应用价值。

Investors need to make decisions based on production capacity whether to choose to lease or buy equipment when the technology is rapidly updating and market needs are fluctuating.Traditional expected optimal decisions are likely to deviate from the real optimal strategy because of an investor＇s limited rationality.This paper develops a Minmax relative regret model to analyze the decision whether to lease or buy,in which the investors are willing to avoid regret than profit under uncertain conditions.We design a limited rational rule for the decisionmaker,and our results show that the relative regret of the limited rational rule is less than one.This paper thus provides useful guidelines for a decision-maker faced with such cases.