基于售价与销量的销售收入时间序列分解研究

The Decomposition of Sales Revenue Considering Selling Price and Sales Volume

鉴于目前对销售收入直接进行时间序列分解时忽视了销售价格与数量的作用,本文将销售价格乘以销售数量等于销售收入这一基本逻辑关系纳入销售收入的时间序列分解中来,将销售收入分解为由销售价格和数量各自的趋势性、周期性、季节性、随机性分量双边交叉相乘所得,依次得到销售收入水平绝对量分解式、水平相对量分解式、变动绝对量分解式、变动相对量分解式。并通过案例分析发现,新的销售收入时间序列分解对于厘清企业产品销售收入的业绩构成及其变动,较旧式直接分解更为精细、精准。

In current situation of direct decomposition on sales revenue not putting the roles of sales price and sales volume into consideration,the equation—sales price multiplies sales volumeequals to sales revenue was includedin this paperwhile doing the decomposition of the time series.The sales revenue was separated into sales price and sales volume with their different dimensions including trend,periodicity,seasonality,and random component,and then each componentwas cross-multiplied bilaterally and got a new sales revenue number.The absolute amount of decomposition formula,the relative amount of decomposition formula,changes in the absolute amount of decomposition formula,changes in the relative amount of decomposition formula on sales revenue were got successively.And through case study,the new sales time series decomposition method,comparing with the old direct decomposition method,is more precise and accurate,and is more applicable and practical in clarifying the performance of enterprise product sales revenue formation and changes.