预测朝鲜半岛局势走向及政策选择的几个方法论问题

Several Methodological Issues in Predicting the Situation of the Korean Peninsula and China's Policy Options

预测朝鲜半岛局势的走向要基于科学的方法论视角。试图预测确定的某种状态的努力具有内在的危险性。正确的预测方法应当是,要充分考虑朝鲜半岛未来可能出现的各种状态,并制定出相应的战略。中国作为能够影响朝鲜半岛走向的行为主体,应当有战略干预的视角,即促使朝鲜半岛的局势向有利于中国的方向演化。在朝鲜半岛问题上,中国只有一个政策选择,那就是积极作为,积极干预其进程,这是我国实施东北亚区域战略和亚太战略的前提。

It is necessary to have a scientific way of thinking in predicting the evolution trend of Korean Peninsula Issue.There is a hidden risk for those efforts trying to create a certain model of evolution trend prediction.The correct method of prediction is to put forward a set of responding strategies by considering each evolution which may arise at Korean Peninsula in the future.As an actor that could influence the trend in this area,China should drive the evolution trend to its advantage with a view of strategic intervention.The only policy choice for China towards Korean Peninsula issue is to play an active role in order to influence its evolution.This is the precondition for China to carry out its North-East Asia and Asian-Pacific strategy.