2016年我国石油市场形势政策分析与展望

Analysis of Oil Market and Policy of China in 2016 and its Prospects

2016年,我国石油市场发展呈现新态势,成品油消费保持增长,但汽油、柴油、煤油消费分化严重;国内原油产量下滑明显,原油进口大幅增长,对外依存度再创新高;炼化行业竞争加大,地方炼油企业原油加工量、开工率、市场份额等指标大幅提升;成品油净出口快速增加,我国成为亚太地区第三大成品油出口国。面对复杂市场形势,我国主动适应、把握经济新常态和低油价环境,以供给侧结构性改革为主线,按照"全面推进、重点突破、先行试点"的思路,着力深化油气行业体制改革。以新疆为试点推进油气矿权管理改革,进一步推进原油"双权"放开,加码炼化"去产能"政策,加快油品质量升级,完善成品油定价机制设定地板价,加速石油国企改革、鼓励社会资本进入,改革取得较快进展。展望2017年,随着部分已建炼厂投产,国内成品油供应过剩压力将进一步增大,在地方炼油企业需求和国储原油收储工作带动下石油对外依存度将再创新高。因此,在全面推进行业改革的同时,应结合当前发展面临的关键问题,高度重视炼化去产能等方面工作。

In 2016, China＇s oil market development appeared many new trends, which indicated that the refined oil consumption maintained growth, but the differentiation was serious in gasoline, diesel and kerosene. Domestic crude oil production decreased significantly, but it achieved substantial growth in crude oil imports, so that external dependence was at a new high. Crude oil processing capacity, operating rate, market share and other indicators of local oil refining enterprises increased significantly, meaning that the competition was intensified in the refining industry. The net export of refined oil has increased rapidly, and China has become the third largest oil exporter in the Asia- Pacific region. Faced with the complex market situation, our country should take the initiative to＇ grasp the new normal and adapt to low oil prices environment. Most importantly, China should strengthen supply-side structural reform as the main line. In accordance with the ＂comprehensive advance, focus on breakthroughs and pilot first＂ , China should takes effort in deepening the oil and gas industry system reform. It would take Xinjiang as a pilot to promote oil, natural gas, coal rights management reform, meanwhile, the use of crude oil and import rights. China will continue to implement the policies of cutting overcapacity and speed up the upgrading of oil quality, the reform is also included to improve the refined oil pricing mechanism to set the floor price. One thing that cannot be ignored is to encourage social capital to enter the market and make rapid progress in oil reform. Outlook for 2017, with some of the refinery has been put into operation, the excess pressure of domestic oil supply will be further increased. Driven by the local oil refining business needs and the state reserve oil purchasing and storage work, the oil external dependency will hit a new high. In comprehensively promoting industry reform, it should be combined with the key issues facing the current development to pay a great attention to cut overcapacity in refinery and petrochemical enterprises, etc.