基于EKC曲线的北京市绿地生态服务价值研究

Analysis of environmental Kuznets curve-based ecosystem services of urban green space:a case study of Beijing City

【目的】提出城市绿地生态服务价值社会属性概念,为其评估过程引入社会发展因素提供参考。【方法】以北京市为例,通过运用环境库兹涅兹曲线(EKC)和Wolfram Alpha知识引擎,探究一定环境污染和社会发展水平条件下,城市绿地生态服务价值的经济影响系数,从而对北京市绿地生态服务功能进行价值评估。【结果】(1)人均碳排放量、区域环境噪音、二氧化硫(SO_2)排放量、氮氧化物(NO_x)排放量、烟尘排放量与人均GDP具有显著相关性,而废水排放量和化学需氧量与人均GDP不具有显著相关性。人均碳排放量、区域环境噪音、SO_2排放量和NOX排放量与人均GDP模拟的方程具有较高的拟合度,决定系数R2均大于0.7。人均碳排放量与人均GDP关系呈倒"U"形,区域环境噪音和SO_2浓度与人均GDP的关系均呈倒"N"形,三者均有"y=0"的污染零值;(2)人均GDP对人均碳排放量、区域环境噪音和SO_2浓度的影响系数分别为0.67、0.68、0.91;(3)2010年北京市城市绿地固定二氧化碳(CO_2)、释放氧(O_2)、减少噪音和吸收SO_2的生态服务价值依据传统的计算方法分别为806 415.74、628.73、119 349.13、1 669.01万元;基于经济因素核算下的生态服务价值分别为540 298.55、421.25、81 157.41、1 518.80万元。【结论】北京市绿地生态价值中仅固碳释氧、降低噪音和吸收SO_2有明显的经济影响系数,受人均GDP影响较大,说明城市绿地生态服务价值具有社会属性,价值大小因城市的经济发展水平而不同。

【Objective】We introduce the concept of social property to provide a theoretical basis for including social development factors in the estimation of ecosystem services in urban green space.【Method】Using Beijing City as a case study,we used the environmental Kuznets curve and Wolfram Alpha Computational Knowledge Engine to analyze the effects of ecosystem services in urban green space on the local economy,using the current levels of environmental pollution and social development in Beijing City.【Result】（1） Per capita carbon emissions,regional environmental noise,SO2 emissions,NOxemissions and soot emissions were all significantly correlated with per capita GDP,but not with wastewater discharge or chemical oxygen demand（COD）.The simulations of a three-degree univariate polynomial equation between per capita GDP and per capita carbon emissions,regional environmental noise,and emissions of SO2 and NOxwere all significant,with R20.7 for all.The relationship between per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP presented an inverted＂U＂shape,and both of the relationships between per capita GDP and the regional environmental noise and SO2 concentration showed an inverted ＂N＂shape.These three relationships all showed a ＂y = 0＂point;（2）The impact coefficients of per capita GDP on per capita carbon emissions,regional environmental noise and SO2 emissions were 0.67,0.68 and 0.91,respectively.（3） In 2010,the ecological service values of CO2 sequestration,O2release,noise reduction and SO2 absorption of urban green space were（RMB） 8 064.157 4,6.287 3,1 193.491 3 and16.690 1 million yuan respectively basing on the traditional estimation methods,while their values changed to（RMB）5 402.985 5,4.212 5,811.574 1 and 15.188 0 million yuan respectively when taking economic factors into account.【Conclusion】Social properties should be included in the ecosystem service estimation of urban green space,as the service values depend on the level of economic development of the city.CO2 sequestration,O2release,noise reduction and SO2 absorption had the obvious impact coefficients,and Per capita GDP had a significant impact on these ecosystem services.It means that social properties should be included in the ecosystem service estimation of urban green space,but how to estimate all of the ecosystem services by using the environmental Kuznets curve is needed to be investigated farther.