基于低碳转型的宏观经济情景模拟与减排策略

Macroeconomic Scenario Simulation and Carbon Reduction Strategies based on Low-carbon Transition

根据不同的经济转型情景设置情景组合,并结合应对气候变化政策,评估了实现不同减排目标下的经济结构,并分析经济转型政策和应对气候变化政策的经济效应及社会效应。模型结果显示,单纯实施碳减排政策会导致能源价格成倍上涨,居民终端消费效用显著降低,对经济发展有不利影响。不同情景下的模拟显示,经济转型能够有力地促进中国的低碳发展。在相同的减排目标约束下,经济转型情景付出的成本远低于非转型情景。

This paper introduces CGE model to simulate different macroeconomic scenario according to the degree of economic transition. Taking the policies responding to climate change such as carbon tax policy,carbon trading into account,it systematically estimated the economic structure and the economic and social impact of these polices under different emission reduction targets. The results indicate that purely implement carbon emission reduction policies will induce the energy price multiplied,thus attenuate the utility of residents and have negative impact on economic development. The simulation results under different simulations show economic transition can promote low carbon development in China effectively. The cost of carbon emission reduction is much lower under economic transition scenario than the economic non-transition scenario.