2017年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测

The Analysis and Forecast for International Crude Oil Price of 2017

通过对2016年国际油价的演变历程以及Brent与WTI价差进行回顾,分析全球石油市场供需情况,发现2016年供需形势已有好转。并结合非基本面因素的变化以及对2017年各经济体经济发展的预期,据此对2017年国际油价作出预测:在各种因素综合作用下,2017年Brent、WTI两市明显价差减小,国际原油价格波动加剧,呈小幅上扬的态势。预计Brent、WTI原油平均价格为60美元/桶和62美元/桶,价格波动区间为55~65美元/桶。

Through the review of the evolution about the international oil price in 2016 and the Brent and WTI spreads,the paper analyzes the supply and demand situation of the global oil market and finds that the supply and demand situation has improved in2016. Combined with the change of non fundamental factors and expectations for the economic development of the economies in2017,we can forecast the international oil price in 2017：considering all kinds of factors,the spreads of Brent and WTI will reduce;international crude oil price will volatility and show a slight rise trend; Brent,WTI crude oil are expected to average price of $60 and$62 / barrel and the price range from 55 to65 U.S. dollars / barrel.