预期形成机制的选择、宏观政策搭配与通胀预期管理

The Selection of the Formation Mechanism of Expectation,the Mix of Macro-policy and the Management of Inflation Expectation

文章从中国宏观政策现实出发,分析了预期形成机制对宏观政策搭配及通胀预期管理的影响。研究发现,基于学习型预期的动态随机一般均衡模型不仅能刻画预期通胀与实际通胀之间的趋势一致性与持续偏离,还能反映中国人民银行所公布的物价预期指数和国家统计局所公布的消费者预期指数的变化情况。从通胀预期管理角度看,宏观政策搭配不仅受基本面因素制约,还受公众预期形成机制的显著影响,并且应适时地由传统的"一松一紧"模式转变为"双松"或"双紧"模式。在当前形势下,宏观政策应侧重于"精确制导式"的定向调控,加大经济体制改革力度,完善经济供给面,以配合总需求并锁定政策目标。同时,通过积极沟通,塑造和稳定公众对宏观政策的预期,扩大政策调控空间,以实现经济平稳增长。

Based on the reality of macro-policy in China,this paper analyzes the effect of the formation mechanism of expectation on the mix of macro-policy and the management of inflation expectation.The results show that dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on learning expectation not only portrays the trend consistency and persistent deviation between expected inflation and real inflation,but also demonstrates the changes in the price expectation index published by the people’s Bank of China and the index of consumer expectations announced by the National Bureau of Statistic.From a perspective of the management of inflation expectation,the mix of monetary policy and fiscal policy is affected not only by economic fundamental factors,but also by the formation mechanism of expectation,and should shift from traditional loose-tight mode to two-tight or two-loose modes.Under the current situation,macro policy should focus on directional control based on precision guidance,strengthen the reform of economic system,and improve the supply side of economic system to match the demand side and lock the policy target.Meanwhile,by active communication,our government should shape and stabilize the macro-policy expectation of the public,and enlarge the policy adjustment space to achieve steady economic growth.