从技术追赶到技术前沿的后发经济增长路径研究

Study on the Path of Later-developed Economic Growth from Technological Catch-up to Technological Frontier

从短期来看,大部分后发国家的阶段性经济增长动因可以用技术追赶与技术前沿这两种典型的技术进步模式加以解释。从长期来看,技术追赶和技术前沿作为后发经济增长的两种动力模式也可以在一个国家的不同发展阶段共存,构成一个后发经济增长路径。后发经济增长路径遵循"技术准备—技术追赶—技术前沿"的三阶段技术演进过程,结合理论推演和实证分析,可以分析探究成功追赶或赶超的典型案例国家在技术演进阶段中的后发经济增长动态,以期为以中国为代表的后发国家技术赶超和经济增长做出适宜的阶段性策略取舍提供理论指导。

In the short term, the periodical economic growth drivers of most later - developed countries can be explained by the two typical technological progress patterns as technological catch - up and technological frontier. In the long term, as two dynamic models of later - developed economic growth, technological catch -up and technological frontier can coexist with each other at different stages of a country＇ s development, and constitute a later - developed economic growth path. The path of later - developed economic growth follows a three - stage technological evolution process as ＂technological preparation, technological catch- up and technological frontier＂. By making theoretical deduction and empirical test, the paper discusses the later - developed economic growth trends of the countries which successfully caught up or surpassed other countries. The purpose is to provide theoretical guidance for later -developed countries represented by China to make appropriate periodical strategic choice of technological catch - up and economic growth.