需求网络结构、销售策略与出口波动：来自中国企业的证据

Demand Network Structure,Sales Strategy and Export Volatility:Evidence from China's Firm-Level Data

本文基于网络结构理论和异质性分析框架,检验了企业的需求网络结构对出口销售波动的影响,并使用中国海关2000-2006年"企业-产品-目的地"层面的出口数据,从产品特征和销售策略两个角度刻画出口企业面临的需求分布结构特征,验证了低需求网络集中度企业的高风险分散能力,能够有效缓解其出口销售波动。本文为了清晰地研究需求网络对企业出口波动的影响机制,还按照来源差异将企业出口波动进行分解,我们发现:企业的内源性波动和外源性波动同时受到产品特征和销售策略两方面决定的需求网络集中度的影响,企业规模和所有制特征与需求网络结构的交互项对企业出口波动存在显著影响。

Using the theory of enterprise networks, we study the influence of demand network on ex- port volatility with the framework of heterogeneity. From the two perspectives, product characteristics and sales strategy, we construct indexes of demand network concentration to measure export demand distribution structure at firm-product-destination level respectively. We find that： Firstly, firms with lower demand net- work concentration have stronger ability to prevent risks, which can effectively relief China＇s export volatility during 2002-2006. In order to make the transmission mechanism clear, we decompose export volatility to two parts, firm-specific heterogeneity volatility and sector-destination policy-induced volatility and find that the two kinds of volatility can be both influenced by the network concentration degree induced by product characteristics and sales strategy. And export volatility can be influenced by the interaction of firm size and ownership with network concentration.