外来人口是否促进了城市房价上涨?——基于中国城市数据的实证研究

Do Migrants Boost City's Housing Price? An Empirical Study Based on China's City Data

本文主要利用2005年中国城市住房价格数据和2005年1%,人口抽样调查中外来人口占比数据研究外来人口对于城市住房价格的影响。在控制了城市人均GDP和城市人口规模等因素后,外来人口占比更高的城市房价更高,表现为2005年外来人口占比每多出10%,,2005年房价就会高出7.5%,。为了避免双向因果效应与遗漏变量偏误,本文将城市1月平均气温作为外来人口占比的工具变量,研究结果显示外来人口占比与城市房价之间的正相关关系仍然显著。在机制分析中发现,外来人口很可能通过影响高技能劳动者的收入与迁入地的企业与工厂来间接影响城市房价。

This paper investigates the impact of migrants on city＇s housing price using the data ol Chinese city＇s housing price in 2005 and the data of the migrants in the sample survey of 1% population in 2005. The city＇s housing price is higher when the city＇s migrants accounted for a higher proportion, after we controlled the city＇s per GDP and population and other variables. In 2005, compared to other cities, 10% higher in the proportion of a city＇s migrants results in 7.5% higher in the city＇s housing price, after we controlled for other variables. In order to avoid two- way causal effect and omitted variable bias, this paper using the city＇s average temperature in January as the instrumental variable of the city＇s migrants＇ proportion. The result shows the posi- tive correlation between the city＇s migrants＇ proportion and housing price remains significant. In the mechanism analysis, we find that migrants are likely to affect the city＇s housing price indi- rectly by influencing the income of high skilled workers and the enterprises and factories in the city.