原料奶生产形势和乳制品进口趋势分析

Milk Production Situation and Dairy Imports Forecast in China

本文在分析原料奶生产形势的基础上,对我国未来5年内乳品进口增长趋势进行了预测。近年来大规模牧场迅速发展,占全国原料奶产量比例不断提高,同时,原料奶价格与主要出口国奶价的差距明显扩大。高奶价和高零售价对原料奶消费乃至产量的增长产生了一定的制约。预计未来五年,乳品进口增速将高于国内原料奶生产增速;乳脂肪(奶酪、黄油、奶油)进口增速将高于乳蛋白(全脂粉、脱脂粉)进口增速;成品(婴儿奶粉、液态奶)进口将保持较高的增速。中国奶业面临的挑战是:降低原料奶成本,发展高附加值新品。

Based on the analysis of the situation of raw milk production, this paper forecasts the trend of dairy imports of china in the next 5 years. Large-scale farms have developed rapidy during past years and account for an increasing share of the national milk production. At the same time, the gap between Chinese milk price and that of the main dairy exporters has enlarged significantly. High milk prices and high retail prices of dairy products have constrained the growth of dairy consumption and that of milk production. According to our forecast, in next 5 years, dairy imports will grow more rapidly than domestic milk production; dairy fats imports（chinese, butter, cream） will grow more rapidly than dairy protein imports（WMP, SMP）; finished dairy products imports （infant formula, liquid milk） will keep good growth rates. Chinese dairy industry faces the challenges of reducing milk production costs and developing new added-value dairy products.