摘要
针对北京市废弃生物质资源进行系统调研和初步评估,估算北京市的废弃生物质资源潜力,由目前生物质资源的保有量数据构建了ARIMA模型,对北京市潜在废弃生物质资源进行预测,估算未来几年生物质废弃物资源化利用量,为生物质能替代化石能源,减小北京能源供应压力提供依据。研究结果表明:2017年北京市农业生物质废弃物的资源化利用潜力为44.08万t标煤,未来可开发量趋于平稳;2017年餐厨垃圾的资源化利用潜力为46.81万t标煤,未来总量仍不断增长,可开发潜力巨大。
On the basis of preliminary evaluation of Beijing＇s biomass waste, this study had estimated the biomass waste resource potential of Beijing, and we constructed a ARIMA model to predict the potential of biomass waste in Beijing according to the current biomass resource inventory data, then we estimated the biomass waste resource utilization in the next few years, in order to provide biomass energy to replace fossil energy and reduce the pressure of energy supply. The results showed that： there are 4.408x105 t standard coal in agricultural biomass waste resource utilization potential, and the future development tends to be stable; there are 4.681×105 t standard Coal of kitchen waste resource utilization can be used in 2017, the future total gross is still growing with great potential in development.
出处
《可再生能源》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第3期323-328,共6页
Renewable Energy Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71273021
7167030506)
北京工业大学研究生科技基金项目(ykj-2015-12783)
