房价预期对城镇家庭消费支出的影响

Consumption Responses to House Price Expectation

本文基于微观调查数据实证检验了预期房价变动对不同类型城镇家庭的消费支出的影响。研究发现,虽然预期房价上涨会促进持有住房家庭的消费支出和抑制尚无住房家庭的消费支出,但是预期房价变动对于家庭消费支出的总体影响并不显著。这意味着,调控房价无助于提升中国城镇家庭的消费支出。本文最后对上述结果进行解释,并给出了相应的政策建议。

This paper investigates empirically the impact of the expected price changes on Chinese urban households＇ consumption expenditure based on microscopic investigation data. Main empirical results are： （1） House appreciation expectation will promote the housing holding families＇ consumption and reduce the nonhousing households＇ consumption. （2） However, the overall impact of house price expectation on urban households＇ consumption is not significant. This means that regulation of housing prices will do nothing to improve chinese urban households＇ consumption expenditure. Finally, we offer plausible explanations and policy recommendations to our findings.