贷款集中、信贷跟随与产能过剩——以中国上市公司行业贷款为例

Loan Concentration,Credit Follow-Up and Overcapacity——A Case Study of the Industrial Loans of Chinese Listed Companies

本文考察中国不同类型商业银行在向不同行业上市公司发放贷款时是否存在带有"羊群效应"的信贷跟随行为,并分析这种信贷跟随行为对行业实体经济的影响。研究发现,中国商业银行在不同行业上市公司的信贷行为中存在相互跟随的"羊群效应",这种信贷跟随行为会在短期内促进行业实体经济的增长,但在中长期会造成行业产能过剩和行业收益率的反转,引起实体经济的波动。

This paper presents an analysis whether the credit follow-up, a herding-effect behavior, exists in the loans issued by various types of Chinese commercial banks to the listed companies in different industries, and the impacts of the credit follow-up on the real economy. It＇s found that there is a mutual follow-up herding-effect in the loans issued by Chinese commercial banks to the listed companies in different industries, and it can promote the growth of the real industrial economy in the short term, but results in industrial overcapacity, the reversion of the industrial returns and the fluctuation in the real economy.