我国中部崛起政策有效性的实证研究

Effectiveness of the Central China Development Policy

本文采用差分内差分方法对我国中部崛起政策应对区域发展不均衡的有效性进行实证研究。实证表明,短期内经济增长出现了收敛,但这种收敛趋势在中长期中消失。短期内,政策促进人均GDP增长率提升0.75%,中长期仅提升0.19%。稳健性检验发现,城镇和农村人均消费水平在初始消费水平上均出现收敛,但前者的趋同效应大于后者。本文表明,中部各省与东部各省在近20年的发展中存在收敛趋势,政策在总体上是有效的,但在不同时期和不同群体的效果存在差异。

This paper investigates the effectiveness of central China development policy in resolving the regional inequality by utilizing the DID method.The results show that there exists economic convergence between eastern and central provinces in the short term,but the convergent trend tends to vanish in the long term.The policy has accelerated the growth of GDP per capita by 0.75%in the short term and by 0.19%in the long term.The robustness check shows that the policy has stimulated the convergence of consumption per capita between urban and rural areas,and a stronger impact on the former exists.The results suggest that the central China development policy is effective,but the effectiveness varies in different time periods and different groups.