中国三次产业生产用水消耗的时空演绎分解--基于LMDI-I模型的经验分析

Spatial-temporal Deductive Dissolution of Productive Water Consumption in Three Industries of China—Empirical Analysis Based on LMDI-I Model

本文借鉴Kaya恒等式,并应用LMDI-I分解模型,分析驱动中国2003-2014年三大产业生产用水消耗的人口效应、经济水平效应和用水效率效应的时空演绎特征。研究发现,人口效应是抑制第一产业和促进第二产业以及第三产业生产用水消耗的主要因素之一,同时经济水平效应对三大产业生产用水消耗主要表现为正向促进效应,而用水效率效应则主要表现为负向抑制效应。每个省区的从业人员变动、经济水平变动和用水效率变动共同决定了全国生产用水消耗的变动,在当前特定情况下,地区生产用水消耗的下降与全国生产用水消耗下降存在不一致性,因此,为了顺利实现全国水资源节约的整体目标,需要及时评估各省区对全国水资源节约的贡献度,准确把握中国生产用水消耗的空间分布特征,重点关注那些对生产用水消耗影响较为关键的省区,以尽快实现对水资源消耗总量的有效控制。

With Kaya identity,and using the LMDI-I decomposition model,the spatial-temporal deductive characteristics of the economic effects,population effects and water use efficiency effects of the productive water consumption in three industries of China from 2003 to 2014 were analyzed.The study shows that the population effect is one of the main factors that inhibit the first industry and promote the second industry and the third industry productive water consumption,and economic level effect on the three major industries in productive water consumption is mainly shown as the positive promotion effect and water use efficiency effect is mainly shown as negative inhibitory effect.The change of national productive water consumption is determined by the changes of employees,economic level and water use efficiency of all provinces;and regional decline of productive water consumption may be inconsistent with the national decline in certain situations.Therefore,in order to successfully achieve the target of national water resource saving,we should duly evaluate the contribution given by every province to the decline of national productive water consumption,accurately grasp the spatial distribution characteristics of production water consumption in China,and focus on the provinces with a strong driving effect.By doing so can achieve effective control of the total amount of water consumption as soon as possible.