我国通货膨胀影响因素的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors to Domestic Inflation

本文选取2008年1月至2016年3月的我国消费者价格指数(CPI)、工业增加值(GDP)、企业商品价格指数货币供应量(M2)、生产者物价指数(PPI)、商品零售价格指数(RPI)的月度数据,运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、向量自回归(VAR)模型、脉冲响应分析及方差分解等多种计量经济方法,对我国通货膨胀的影响因素进行了实证分析,结果表明:CPI与GDP、M2、PPI、RPI之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,CPI与M2之间存在着负相关关系,通货膨胀具有持久性,RPI是CPI的格兰杰原因。文章的最后提出了防范与治理我国通货膨胀的对策建议。

Based on monthly data of consumer price index（CPI）、the value added of industry（GDP）、the enter-prise commodity price index money supply（M2）、the producer price index（PPI） and commodity retail price index（RPI） between January 2008 and March 2016 in China, by using a variety of econometric method, such as Johan-sen cointegration test, Granger causality test, vector autoregressive model, impulse response analysis and vari-ance decomposition, this paper studied the influence factors of inflation in China. The results show that there ex-ists a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between CPI and GDP、RPI、PPI、M2. But there exists a negativecorrelation relationship between CPI and M2. At the same time, the characteristics of the persistence was showedfor inflation. RPI is the Granger cause of CPI. Finally, some measures to prevent and control inflation in Chinawere proposed.