抚州市耕地压力变化及趋势分析

Change and Trend of Cultivated Land Pressure in Fuzhou City

利用耕地压力指数分析了2001—2014年江西省抚州市的耕地压力状况,并运用回归分析法、灰色预测法、曲线拟合等方法对抚州市2020和2025年的耕地压力进行预测。结果表明,2003年以前抚州市耕地压力较大,K值均大于1;2004—2014年抚州市加大了耕地保护力度,耕地压力指数K值基本保持在0.8左右。预测2020、2025年抚州市耕地压力指数分别为0.79和0.80,耕地压力仍然处于警戒线附近。抚州市应继续加大土地整理力度,改善农业生产条件,提高粮食单产。

Using cultivated land pressure index,the cultivated land pressure of Fuzhou City in Jiangxi Province during 2001-2014 was analyzed.The cultivated land pressure of Fuzhou in 2020 and 2025 were predicted by means of regression analysis,gray prediction and curve fitting.The results showed that the cultivated land pressure was higher in Fuzhou before 2003,and the K value was more than 1;from 2004 to 2014,Fuzhou City increased the protection of cultivated land,and the K value of cultivated land pressure remained at around 0.8.Forecast cultivated land pressure index of Fuzhou City in 2020,2025 will be 0.79 and 0.80,cultivated land pressure will be still near the warning line.Fuzhou City should continue to increase land consolidation efforts to improve agricultural production conditions,improve grain yields.