基于改进点估计法的输电线路过负荷风险评估

Transmission line overload risk assessment based on improved point estimation methods

针对分布式电源输出功率的随机性问题,提出一种基于改进点估计法的输电线路过负荷风险评估的方法。在传统2 m及2 m+1点估计法的基础上,根据各个输入量的影响因子来选择相应的权重,改善传统点估计法的计算精度,实现输电线路的过负荷风险评估。对含风光互补发电单元的IEEE 30节点系统中输电线路过负荷风险进行评估,分析结果表明所提方法具有计算成本低、预测精度比传统点估计法精度高的特点。

Aiming at the output power randomness of DG（Distribution Generation）,a method based on the improved point estimation is proposed to assess the transmission line overload risk of transmission network. Based on the traditional 2m and 2m＋l point estimation methods,the weight of each input variable is determined according to its influence factor to improve the computational accuracy of traditional point estimation method for the overload risk assessment of transmission network. The transmission line overload risk of IEEE 30-bus transmission network with wind-solar complementary electricity-generating units is assessed and results show that,the proposed method has lower computational cost and higher forecasting accuracy than traditional point estimation method.