父代流迁经历对子代居留意愿的代际影响与机制研究

Intergenerational Influence and Mechanism of Migration Behavior on Residential Preference

在中国传统家庭制度的影响下,新生代流动人口对未来居留地点的选择受到父辈的影响。文章基于反事实框架,发现父代流迁经历与子代居留意愿存在因果关系。考察父代对子代居留意愿的影响机制,发现父代的流迁经历除了具有直接的影响,还将通过与文化资本、社会资本等家庭禀赋产生的交互作用影响子代的居留意愿。父代流迁经历对子代居留意愿的影响机制存在性别差异,母亲的流迁经历会产生直接影响,父亲流迁经历与社会资本的交互效应会产生显著影响。在人们做出居留决策时,社会因素比经济因素产生的影响更为明显。研究表明,流动人口的居留意愿会受到家庭内部的代际影响,父代的流迁行为将对子代的居留意愿产生影响,有助于未来子代实现"留城"行为。

Residential preference of new generation migrants is affected by their parents within the traditional family system, and we identify the causal effects based on a counterfactual framework in this study. It is found that migration experience of parents can influence children＇s residential preference di- rectly, or by interacting with family＇s endowments including cultural capital, and social capital. Such in- tergenerational influence has gender difference. Mother＇s migration experience has stronger direct effects, while the interaction between father＇s migration experience and the family＇s social capital is more salient. The results suggest that migration behavior of parents is a maior contributor to residential preference of the new generation migrants, because parents＇ migration experience is helpful for their children to achieve their goals.