人口转型与经济增长——中等收入阶段视角

Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in Middle-income Stage

本文从人口红利和统一增长理论两个视角阐述中等收入阶段人口转型的特征及其与经济增长的关系。然后,根据世界银行数据和宾州世界表的人力资本指数,采用生存分析中的COX比例风险模型,验证了OECD国家人口转型与经济增长的关系,并提出了中国应对人口转型应该全面放弃计划生育政策,大力开发老年劳动资源以及以"人力资源红利"代表"人口红利"的政策建议。

This paper expounds the characteristics of demographic transition in middle-income stage and its relation with economic growth from the perspectives of population dividends and unified growth theory. In accordance with world bank data and human capital index of Penn World Tables, it uses cox proportional hazard model to verify the correlation between Demographic Transition and Economic Growth of OECD. It also proposes that family plan must be abandoned in response to demographic transition, aging labor resource must be developed, human resource divi- dend must represent population dividend.