鄂尔多斯盆地低渗透气藏水平井经济开采预测模型

Prediction Model for Economic Production Limit of Horizontal Wells in Exploitation of Low Permeability Gas Reservoir in Ordos Basin

针对目前国际油气价格大幅度变动,中国国内大部分油田出现成本费用大于产出效益的问题,本文基于财务净现值计算方法的理论,利用数理统计分析构造模型方法,建立了鄂尔多斯盆地低渗透气藏水平井产能经济下限预测模型,并通过不同建井费用和不同内部收益率下的矿场实例进行了验证。结果表明,该模型对不同情况下水平井产能经济下限预测准确,误差相对较小,可用于类似地质条件下水平井的产能经济下限预测,研究结果对水平井开采的最终效益最大化及对低渗透气藏水平井经济有效开发具有借鉴价值。

At present,the international oil and gas price changes in a large range,the development cost of most of the oil fields in China is greater than the output benefit. For this reason,based on the theory of financial net present value calculation method,the lower limit prediction model of horizontal well in low permeability gas reservoirs in Ordos Basin is established by using mathematical statistics,and it is verified by the field examples with different well building cost and different internal return rate. The results show that,the model is accurate to the prediction of the economic production lower limits of horizontal wells under different conditions,the prediction error is relatively small,and it can be used for the prediction of the economic production lower limits of horizontal wells with similar geological conditions. The research results can be used as reference for the ultimate benefit maximization of horizontal well exploitation and the economic and effective development of low permeability gas reservoirs by horizontal wells.