1984-2014年中国城乡居民食物消费转型特征比较分析

Comparative Analysis on the Feature of Food Consumption of Urban and Rural Residents in China From 1984 to 2014

基于1984-2014年中国居民主要食物消费量时间序列数据,依托实证分析与比较研究考察城乡二元间居民食物消费的新规律及特征差异。研究发现:(1)城乡居民经济占有量的增厚使其食物消费倾向转型。城镇居民肉蛋奶消费量攀升,农村则呈现动、植物消费交叉竞争但植物性食物尤其是粮食消费稳居主导地位的态势;(2)农村恩格尔系数大致沿城镇恩格尔系数的前进轨迹演变。相较于城镇,农村食物消费的落后表现在恩格尔系数始终持续过大与其所处低端转型阶段两个方面;(3)预测未来居民食物消费特征:恩格尔系数与主食消费支出逐渐下降,副食消费支出以及外出就餐等服务性食物消费不断增加。为实现《中国食物与营养发展纲要(2014—2020年)》的膳食目标,需对居民食物消费进行科学引导与调控以期食物消费的营养均衡与城乡联动。

Based on the data of the main food consumption of Chinese residents chronologically,from 1984 to2014 and researching new laws and characteristic differences about food consumption between urban and rural residents by means of empirical analysis and comparison,we discovered that:( 1) the enrichment of economic share of urban and rural residents caused a translation of propensity to food consumption. In terms of urban residents,the consumption of milk,meat and eggs is increasing. As for rural residents,it shows a situation that there being cross competition between animal and plant consumption,but vegetable food consumption,especially grain consumption,still retains its dominant position;( 2) Engel coefficient of rural evolves following the forward track about Engel coefficient of urban roughly. Compared with urban food consumption,rural food consumption is backward,because of two factors that its Engel coefficient always sustained too large and it being at the low end of the transition phase;( 3) we can predict the characteristics of residents food consumption,which is that Engel coefficient and principle foods consumption expenditure decrease gradually and that subsidiary foods and service foods consumption expenditure is increasing. To achieve the meal target composed in China Food and Nutrition Development Program( 2014-2020),the government should make some scientific guidance and regulation of residents food consumption,so that we can show our expect to Nutritional balance of food consumption and a state of linkage between city and countryside.