财政和货币政策协调机制与宏观经济稳定——基于动态随机一般均衡框架的研究

Coordination Mechanism of Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability:Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework

为研究财政政策和货币政策协调机制对经济的影响,文章构建了动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),引入货币政策、财政政策(劳动收入税、资本收入税)、跨期消费、劳动供给和生产技术等冲击,分析研究了各种冲击对经济波动的影响。研究表明,劳动供给、税收政策和货币政策冲击,对不同类型家庭(李嘉图式家庭和非李嘉图式家庭)消费的影响具有结构性差异;劳动收入税和资本收入税冲击,不仅不会降低产出和消费,还会增加资本存量和增进社会福利。方差分解表明,生产技术和货币政策冲击解释了内生经济变量波动的大部分信息,跨期消费冲击对消费、资本存量、劳动供给以及社会福利具有一定的解释力,资本收入税冲击对政府债券存量有一定的解释力。

In order to study the impact of the coordination mechanism of fiscal and monetary policy on the economy,this paper,under the framework of new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium（ DSGE）,introduces six shocks including monetary policy shock,public fiscal policy shocks（ labor income tax shock and capital tax shock）,inter-temporal consumption shock,labor supply shock and production technology shock. With the parameters calibrated estimate,it analyzes the effects of various shocks on economic fluctuations. As a conclusion,labor supply shock,tax policy shock and monetary policy shock have different effects on different types of households. Both labor income tax shock and capital tax shock increase capital stock and improve social welfare instead of reducing output and consumption. The variance decomposition shows that production technology shocks and monetary policy shocks explain most of the information about endogenous variables fluctuations and the inter-temporal consumption shock has some explanatory power to consumption,capital stock,labor supply and welfare. At the same time,capital tax shock has certain explanatory power to bond stock.