一种考虑认知不确定性的风险矩阵分析方法

A risk matrix analysis method considering cognitive uncertainty

为解决传统风险矩阵(CRM)元素等级分配的非一致性问题,提出一种考虑风险决策者认知不确定性的风险矩阵分析方法。首先,采用等级序数"乘法原则"计算风险指数,并将风险指数作为风险矩阵元素等级分配的依据。其次,引入风险决策者关注度系数,用来描述风险潜在信息的影响,并以指数的形式修正传统风险指数计算模型。最后,将修正后的连续概率后果分布(CPCD)映射到CRM。以风险指数最大化原则分配风险矩阵元素等级。运用该方法,分析某航天发射场某型低温液氢加注系统风险等级量化过程。结果表明,采用修正后的风险指数计算模型,能够得到不同加注工序不同关注度系数的风险等级分配方案,风险决策者的认知不确定性对低温液氢加注风险等级分配有影响。

In order to deal with the inconsistency of element level allocation in CRM,a new risk matrix analysis method,considering the cognitive uncertainty of risk decision makers,was proposed. Firstly,the risk indexes were calculated by adopting the ＂multiplication principle＂of level numbers. The risk indexes were used as the basis for level allocation of risk matrix. Secondly,the decision maker＇s attention coefficients were incorporated to describe the influences of potential risks. The traditional risk index calculation model was modified by the attention coefficients. Then,the modified continuous probability consequence diagram（ CPCD） was mapped to the CRM. The risk matrix element levels were allocated based on the principle of maximum risk index. The risk level quantification process of a certain type of cryogenic liquid hydrogen filling system on a certain space launching site was analyzed by this method. The results show that risk level allocation schemes of different filling procedures can be obtained with the modified risk index model,and that the cognitive uncertainty of risk decision makers has an influence on risk level allocation of the cryogenic liquid hydrogen filling system.