化工园区多米诺事故风险评价与防控技术综述

Review of risk assessment and pre-control of Domino effect in Chemical Industry Park

定量风险评价是化工厂区或园区预防多米诺效应的主要方法,各类事故预防与控制措施的制定及其有效性检验也依赖于多米诺效应定量风险评价的结果。然而,由于概率风险表征、多米诺场景概率结构、火灾与爆炸致损概率等存在多种不一致或解释不明确的方法模型,使风险评价结果差异性很大,无法更进一步对各类多米诺事故预防与控制技术进行评估。本文首先界定了多米诺效应的基本概念和原理,然后对当前文献中相关多米诺效应定量风险评价方法进行深入剖析,明确了多米诺场景概率以及火灾热辐射、爆炸冲击波、爆炸碎片致损概率的计算方法。另外,还从阈值与安全距离、安全容量及布局优化、安全屏障与防火隔热层、安全与应急管理决策支持、安防与脆弱性分析及灾害衍生事故等方面对多米诺事故防控技术进行了评述。最后,指出以目标设备为核心的各类致损概率计算方法,即设备易损性,是后续研究的关注焦点。

Quantitative risk assessment of Domino effects （DMQRA） is the key method to be used to prevent Domino accidents in chemical plants or parks. Also, the various pre-control measures and their availability evaluations are based on the result of DMQRA. However, there are many inconsistent or unclear interpreted modes and methods for presentation of probability risk, probability structure of Domino scenarios and damage probabilities of target equipment exposed to fire or blast such that the obtained DMQRA results are in a great variability. Moreover, it is hard to evaluate the specific pre-control measures. In this paper, firstly, the concept and basic principles of Domino effect are clearly defined. Then through carefully analyzing of the various DMQRA methods in literature, the probability structure of Domino scenario and damage probabilities of target equipment attacked by fire thermal radiation, blast wave overpressure and blast fragments are outlined clearly. In addition, damage thresholds, safety distances, safety inventories, layout optimization, safety barriers, thermal insulations, decision supporting for safety and emergency management, security, resilience and natural hazards triggering for domino effect are reviewed in detail. Finally, it is figured out that the advanced methods for calculating of damage probabilities of target equipment exposed to fire, blast and other triggering vectors, i.e. equipment vulnerability, will be focused upon in the future.