中国与拉美及加勒比地区双边关系的发展与未来趋势

The New Relations between China and LAC and the New Future

从20世纪末到本世纪初,中国与拉美及加勒比地区在国际秩序、经贸、金融等领域的合作取得了成功。但是,成功的背后也暴露出双边市场不对称和产品单一化等问题,这说明当前中拉经贸关系除了少数领域具有互补性外,多数仍处于严重不对等的状况。拉美出口呈现出的再第一产业化和逆工业化现象,成为当前拉美学术界关注的焦点。受2008年世界金融危机以及中国经济新常态的影响,拉美应主动改变当前的双边贸易格局,应将双边区域合作的重心导向教育、科技和基础设施建设领域。对中国关系的深化是拉美及加勒比区域一体化的重要契机,换句话说,拉美地区各国通过共同协商制定与中国关系发展战略,提升区域对中国关系的同时也可提升拉美区域一体化的程度。这种双边与多边关系的交叉更有利于形成一个中间节点,以此来影响世界地缘政治格局。

Since the end of the last century and the beginning of the present, relations between China and LAC have ac- quired great importance in the economic, commercial and financial. This diagnosis abounds in a symptomatology eharac terized by the scarce diversification at the level of products and markets, as well as several asymmetries that do not ob scure the general, complementarity between the two regions, with few exceptions. Phenomena such as the reprimarization of exports and the de-industrialization of some economies have been the subject of specialized literature. After the crisis of 2008 and the new Chinese normality we witness a change of scenery that requires alterations of the commercial pattern and a readaptation of both parts, having to prioritize areas such as education, technology or infrastructures. The relationship with China is an opportunity that ALC must take advantage of to improve its integration and connectivity by providing a consensual strategy. At the same time, political, bilateral and multilateral ties can facilitate the formation of a shared a- genda that transforms current reality by giving greater importance to the geopolitical variable.