政府土地供应政策、行政调控政策对房价波动的影响——基于中国35个城市的证据

Government's Land Supply Regulations and Administrative Regulations' Effects on the Housing Prices' Fluctuations——Evidence Based on 35 Cities in China

2016年中国面临了新一轮的房价上涨,政府调控对房价调节起着重要的作用。本文从中国35个城市2010~2016年的土地供应政策(土地竞拍过程中的额外规定)和行政调控政策("限贷"、"限购"和住房规划政策)的变化来研究其对房价波动的影响,得出土地供应调控和"限购"政策对房价的显著正向作用,但"限贷"和住房规划政策对房价的作用与预期相反并做了相应的分析,最后提出3个稳定房价的建议:(1)在供给侧的调控仍以增加土地供应为核心,各大城市统筹兼顾,突出重点。(2)在需求侧的调控则以"限贷"、"限购"为抑制房价上涨的短期有效的政策工具。(3)土地制度改革是稳定房价根本措施。

China has experienced a new round of housing prices＇ rising in 2016,and government＇s regulation plays an important role in the regulation of housingprices.Based on the change of land supply policy of China＇s 35 cities from 2010 to 2016（additional provisions in the process of land auction）,and the change of administrative regulation（credit limit,home purchase restrictions,housing planning policy）,this article studies the regulations influence on the housing prices＇ fluctuations,it＇s concluded that the land supply regulation and home purchase restriction policy have significant positive effects on housing prices,however,the effect of the credit limit and housing planning policy on the housing prices is contrary to expectations,and the corresponding analysis is made.Finally this article puts forward three proposals to stabilize housing prices：（1）Regulation in the supply side is still to increase land supply as the core policy,each big city should make overall planning and take all-round consideration,and highlight the key points.（2）In terms of the demanding side,it takes credit limit and home purchase restriction as the effective regulation tools for the short-term to curb housing prices＇ rising.（3）The design and reform of the land system is the critical points.