中国区域农业要素禀赋结构变迁的逻辑和趋势分析

An Analysis on the Logic and Trend of Regional Agricultural Factor Endowment Structure Change in China

沿着克鲁格曼"核心—边缘"模型的内在机理,本文结合中国国情提出了中国区域农业要素禀赋结构变迁逻辑的三个假说,并基于29省(区、市)1990~2014年的数据运用资本深化系数、资源禀赋系数和要素结构指数进行了验证。分析发现,农业要素禀赋结构变迁特征取决于农业劳动力转移速率、农业资本投入增长速率和农用地面积变化率在"东部地区—其他地区"和"城市—周边农村"的双层"核心—边缘"结构中的互动。相较于农业劳动力转移速率和农用地面积变化率而言,农业资本投入增长速率的变化更为明显;中国各区域农业劳均增加值和农业劳均资本存量尽管在不断上升,但无法掩盖各区域农业要素禀赋结构的固化现象;农业要素禀赋流动总体上有利于东部地区。

Based on Krugman＇s ＂Core - Periphery＂ model, this article puts forward three characteristic hypotheses concerning the logic of China＇s regional agricultural endowment structure change, and uses data collected in 29 provinces from 1990 to 2014 to test the hypotheses by applying a Capital Deepening Coefficient, an Endowment Factor Coefficient and a Factor Structure Index Model. The analysis shows that the characteristics of agricultural factor endowment structure change are determined by the interaction of three variables （i.e. agricultural labor force transfer rate, agricultural capital input growth rate, and agricultural land changing rate） in two sorts of＂Core - Periphery＂ structures （i.e. ＂eastern region - other regions＂ and ＂city - surrounding countryside＂）. Compared to the other two variables, the change in agricultural capital input growth rate is found to be more obvious. The study further finds a structural solidification of the inter-regional factor endowment despite the increase in both agricultural added value per worker and capital stock per worker in China, and that the agricultural factor endowment change in general is conducive to the eastern region.