我国雾霾污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验

An Empirical Test of the Environmental Kuznets Curve of China's Haze Pollution

本文以我国160个地级及以上城市作为研究样本,以PM2.5和PM10作为雾霾污染的衡量指标,构建空间Tobit模型对雾霾污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线假说(EKC)进行了实证检验。研究发现:我国城市雾霾污染呈现明显的空间集聚特征;在控制了经济规模等变量之后,雾霾污染与经济发展之间不支持倒"U"型的EKC假说,而是呈现线性递减关系,由此可见,我国的雾霾污染治理已经取得了阶段性的成效;在诸多控制变量中,经济规模、产业结构、人口密度对雾霾污染存在显著的正向影响,而经济密度的提高有助于降低雾霾污染,且雾霾污染与地理区位之间存在密切关联。尽管目前雾霾污染的治理取得了一定成效,但应清醒地认识到雾霾污染的治理是一个长期过程,在未来经济发展的过程中,要更加注重加快转变经济发展方式、调整优化经济结构。

This paper tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） of haze pollution, considering the characteristics of spatial agglomeration of haze pollution, by constructing the Spatial Tobit Model. To test the hypothesis, we use 160 prefectural-level and above cities as the research sample and take PM2.5 and PM10 as a measure of haze pollution. The results show that： The haze pollution in the urban area of China has obvious spatial agglomeration. After controlling the economic scale and other variables, it isn＇ t an inverted-U-shaped of EKC between the haze pollution and economic development, but a linear decline. The governance of the haze pollution in china has made phased achievements. Among the many control variables, economic scale, industrial structure and population density has a significant positive effect on the haze pollution, while reasonable economic density will reduce the haze pollution. At the same time, haze pollution is closely related to geographical location. Although the haze pollution control has achieved some success, we should be clearly aware that the governance of haze pollution is a long-term process. Therefore, in the future, we should turn the mode and adjust the structure in the process of economic development.