舆情信息对我国商品房价格的影响研究

Impact of Public Opinion Information on the Price of Commercial Housing in China

近年来,备受瞩目的房价变动引得各方阵阵热议。统计局和金融机构都推出相关房价指数以引导公众预期,媒体对此的报道对房价的走势也产生了显著影响。将代表政府舆情的国房景气指数、代表金融机构的月度房价指数和代表媒体导向的舆论指标纳入房价预期模型分析房市舆情对房价的影响情况,结果表明:房价指数短期抑制房价上涨,而长期对房价产生了促进作用;媒体播报数量和净值的增加短期内则会促进房价的上涨,之后回调并逐渐减弱。

In recent years, The fast - developing information technology is quickening the spread of public opinion information, and the changes in housing prices have attracted heated debate. The National Bureau of statistics have launched relevant price index to guide the public＇s expectations, and the media information have also affected the prices trend . In this paper, we will introduced the State Housing Boom Index which represent the government＇s public opinion, And the Monthly House Price Index which represent the media - oriented house price expectation . And we analyzed the impact of public opinion on housing prices in China. The results show that： House price index has suppressed the rise in house prices in the short term, and has a positive effect in a long time while the institutional index is better than that of the government. The increase in the media price will promote the rise in house prices in the short term , and it will gradually decline later.