基于新政策对芜湖人口发展的计量分析

Econometric Analysis of Population Development in Wuhu Based on New Policies

本文以安徽省芜湖市为研究对象,在二孩政策下预测该地区未来10-20年各年龄层的人口结构问题。首先使用多元统计方法对相关数据进行处理,并结合生育率调整法等方法,构建了生育率预测模型、死亡率预测模型、各年龄结构人口预测模型等模型,得到了该地区各年龄层的比重及趋势变化情况。最后分析了不同的人口政策与中国的人口增长率以及经济的发展之间的关系。

With Wuhu, Anhui Province as the object of the research, this paper forecasts the region under ＂two chihl＂policy over the next 10 to 20 years, the problems of population structure of all ages. Firstly, using multivariate statisticalmethod to deal with the related data, and combining the methods of fertility rate adjustment method, fertility rate predic-tion model is constructed, the mortality prediction model and the model of population age structure prediction model,such as the change trend of the proportion of all ages and the area. Finally, having analyzed the relationship between thedifferent population policy and China population growth rate, the economic development.