摘要
我国的地方政府债务正处于快速膨胀的时期,其对经济增长的影响引起了社会的广泛关注.基于我国30个省份2004~2015年的面板数据,运用空间面板模型对地方政府债务与区域经济增长之间的非线性影响关系进行了实证检验,研究表明两者关系存在明显的区域差异性:就全国样本和东部地区样本而言,地方政府债务与区域经济增长之间存在显著的"倒U"型非线性影响关系;而在中西部地区,在考虑省份之间的经济空间相关性后,此种影响关系并不显著.这说明,由于我国区域经济发展条件存在较大差异,地方政府债务对不同区域经济增长的影响也不尽相同,针对性的政府债务管理措施十分必要.
Local government debt in China has been increasing considerably,and its influence on economic growth has a- roused wide concern. Based on provincial-level panel data of 30 provinces in China during 2004-2015, we conducted the empir- ical study to test the nonlinear relationship between local government debt and regional economic growth using spatial panel model. Our results indicate that there exist obvious regional differences on the relationship between them： for the sample of the whole country and the eastern region,local government debt has significant inverted-U shaped nonlinear influence on regional e- conomic growth, while such an influence relationship is not significant in the sample of the central and western regions after taking economic spatial correlation among provinces into consideration. From our results, the influences of local government debt in China on economic growth in different regions have been varied due to provinces＇ unbalanced state of development, hence specific measures on local government debt in different regions should be necessary.
出处
《经济数学》
2017年第1期31-38,共8页
Journal of Quantitative Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金(71471020)
湖南省自科基金(2016JJ1001)
湖南省教育厅重点项目(15A003)
