基于时间序列的长沙市PM2.5的统计分析

Statistical Analysis of Changsha PM2.5 Based on Time Series

通过对长沙市2015年AQI检测指标数值PM2.5与SO_2,NO_2,PM10,CO,O_3间相关性进行分析,得到PM2.5与SO_2,NO_2,PM10,CO间存在正相关关系,与O_3间为负相关关系.后建立自回归移动平均模型(ARMA)对长沙市2015年的PM2.5进行短期预测,得到最优模型为ARMA(3,2).最后对长沙治理PM2.5提出相关建议.

PM2.5 gradually becomes the focus of attention. We analyzed the correlation between monitoring index of air pollution PM2.5 and SO2 ,NO2 ,PM10,CO,O3 ,and found that PM2.5 was associated positively with SOt ,NOz ,PM10,CO,and negatively with Oa. Then through establishing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model（ARMA） to predict the PM2. 5 in Changsha,we got ARMA（3,2） is the best . Last, we provide some references to the control of PM2.5 in Changsha.