基于引力模型的林产品双边贸易潜力研究——以中国—中东欧沿线国家为例

The Bilateral Trade Potential of Chinese Forest Products Based on Gravity Model:Focus on Trade between China and Central and East European Countries

基于2005~2014年间中国与中东欧国家林产品双边贸易的面板数据,运用贸易引力模型对中国与中东欧沿线国家林产品双边贸易的影响因素及贸易潜力进行研究。结果表明:两国的经济规模和人均森林资源面积差异对双边贸易额有正向影响;两国之间的距离和"16+1"总理会晤机制的建立有负向的影响;两国的人口规模和金融危机没有显著性影响。中国与罗马尼亚、捷克等国家林产品贸易过度,与波兰、匈牙利等国家林产品贸易不足。因此,针对不同的中东欧国家应有相应的林业政策,加速推进"一带一路"进程,加快建设中国与中东欧国家的铁路基础设施。

Background China and Central and East European Countries(CEECs) are important countries in the development route of 'Belt and Road Initiative'.CEECs are rich in forest resources.The forest economic and trade cooperation developed rapidly between China and CEECs.Especially after '16+1' Prime Minister meeting mechanism establishing in 2012,the bilateral trade value of China and CEECs increased by nearly 9 times from 2005 to 2014.Therefore,it is necessary to study the influencing factors of bilateral forest products trade between China and CEECs.Methods Based on POOL EGLS method,processed the panel data of forest products trade value in China and 16 CEECs(the 16 CEECs were Poland,Czech,Romania,Latvia,Lithuania,Slovakia,Slovenia,Albania,Montenegro,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Macedonia,Hungary,Estonia,Croatia,Serbia and Bulgaria)from 2005 to 2014 which collected from United Nations International Trade Organization and the World Bank.Meanwhile,trade gravity model was used to study the bilateral forest products trade between China and CEECs.Results This paper constructed three models,and both of them are approved by the significant test of 1%level.The DW value of Model three is 1.95 and close to 2.00.It means that there is no self-correlation problem in model three.So the final regression model which improved on the basis of model three was used to analyze the factors that influence on the bilateral forest products trade between China and CEECs.The results show that the main factors influencing the bilateral trade growth of forest products are the GDP,the distance,the per capita forest resources and the establishment of '16+1' Prime Minister meeting mechanism.According to the results of the final regression model,analyzing the forest products trade potential between China and CEECs in 2014.Six countries as Poland,Slovakia,Hungary,Macedonia,Serbia and Montenegro have large potential in bilateral forest products trade with China,namely,the forest products trade between China and these trade partners are still in the development stage and they have a large space for development.So China should strengthen cooperation with these 6 countries actively to reduce trade barriers.The trade potential in two countries as Lithuania and Estonia is yet to be developed.This situation indicates that a certain scale of existing influence factors had reached,but there is still some space forward.The trade potential of other eight countries(Romania,Czech and Bulgaria,Latvia,Croatia,Albania,Slovenia,Bosnia and Herzegovina) belong to the trade potential reshape,it means that only the introduction of new factors can promote its further development.Conclusions and Discussion In summary,facing less per capita forest resources in China,China should introduce a massive afforestation program to maintain the steady increase of forest resources and improve China forest products export trade.Under the background of Prime Minister meeting mechanism,in order to develop the trade in forest products between China and CEECs,China should establish forestry cooperation mechanism determinedly,at the same time China also should make more specific measures and policies for different countries.Reducing the transportation cost is one of the important driving forces to promote bilateral trade in forest products.So China should accelerate the construction of the railway transportation facilities between China and CEECs under proposing the development route of 'Belt and Road Initiative'.