基于系统动力学的重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估有效性分析

Effectiveness analysis of risk assessment of social stability of large-scale water conservancy projects based on system dynamics

从政府支持、公众参与、第三方参与三个层面构建重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估有效性的协同驱动模型,并基于系统动力学构建政府支持子模块、公众参与子模块和第三方参与子模块的因果关系图,表述政府、公众、第三方等外部因素和评估广度、评估深度、评估效度等内部因素的协同作用及其对重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估有效性的影响。提出通过加大政策保障支持,切实履行和加强公众参与,确保第三方参与,加强社会稳定风险评估的独立性、科学性、专业性等提高评估有效性的建议。

The synergic driving model for effectiveness of risk assessment of social stability of decision-making of large-scale water conservancy projects is established from three aspects of government support, public participation and third-party participation. The causality diagram including the sub-modules of government support, public participation and third-party participation is formulated based on the system dynamics. The synergistic effects between the external factors of the government,the public,the third party and the internal factors of assessment extent,assessment depth,assessment validity are stated,and their influences on the effectiveness of risk assessment of social stability of decision-making of large-scale water conservancy projects are illustrated. Finally,some suggestions about how to improve the effectiveness of evaluation are proposed,that is,strengthening of policy security support,implementation of pubic participation,ensuring of third-party participation,improvement of its dependent,scientific and professional characteristics.