基于Tobit模型的中老年劳动供给影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Old Age Labor Supply Based on Tobit Model

本文使用2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据(CHARLS),运用Tobit模型分析了45周岁以上的中老年人劳动者的健康、养老保险、个人特征以及家庭特征对其劳动供给时间的影响。研究发现,健康对中老年劳动供给有着显著的影响,健康状况越好,中老年提供的劳动供给时间越长;参加养老保险的比未参加养老保险的中老年人更倾向于参加市场劳动;男性、农业户口以及在婚的中老年人愿意提供更多的劳动供给时间,年龄对劳动供给的影响呈现倒"U"型;家庭变量在不同程度上影响着中老年人的劳动供给。针对以上结论,本文提出了相应的对策建议。

This paper uses the Tobit model to analyze the impact of health, old - age insurance, personal characteristics and family characteristics of middle - aged and older workers aged 45 and above on their labor supply time by using the 2013 China Health and Accreditation Survey Data （ CHARLS）. The study found that health has a significant impact on the supply of labor in the elderly, the better the health status, the longer the labor supply in the elderly to provide longer; to participate in pension insurance than those who do not participate in the old -age insurance are more inclined to participate in market labor; The agricultural account and the middle -aged and eld- erly people are willing to provide more labor supply time, the impact of age on the supply of labor showed ＂U＂ type; family variables in varying degrees affect the labor supply of the elderly. In view of the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.