中国财政支出规模变化的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of China's Fiscal Expenditure Scale Change

世界各国财政支出的具体情况表明,从长期看,财政支出呈现不断增长的态势。本文围绕中国财政支出的现状,选取我国1978—2015年反映财政支出状况的4个指标,借助SPSS软件,分析GDP、财政收入、财政分权、城镇化水平与财政支出的相关度,为保持中国财政支出的最佳规模提供一些政策建议。通过模型分析可知,GDP、财政收入、城镇化水平与财政支出正相关,财政分权与财政支出负相关。

The specific circumstances of fiscal expenditure in the world shows that, in the long term, fiscal ex- penditure presents a growing trend. Around the current situation of China^s fiscal expenditure, this paper select- ed the four indicators from 1978 to 2015 reflect the status of fiscal expenditure. With the help of SPSS software, analysis of the relationship between GDP, fiscal revenue, fiscal decentralization, urbanization level and fiscal expenditure, to provide some policy recommendations to maintain the best size of China^s fiscal expenditure. Through the model analysis, it can be known that GDP, fiscal revenue, the level of urbanization is positively re- lated to the fiscal expenditure, and the fiscal decentralization and fiscal expenditure are negatively related.