基于鱼群算法和支持向量机的微电网负荷预测

The Load Forecasting of the Micro-grid Based on the Fish Swarm Algorithm and Support Vector Machine

为满足微电网建设和分布式能源的发展,微电网的负荷预测是电网规划和建设研究中的一个难点问题。由于微电网负荷不确定性和波动性强等特性,常规的负荷预测方法不能直接用于微电网负荷预测中,根据微电网的特点,考虑微电网负荷受到天气因数和星期类型等影响,提出一种基于鱼群算法和支持向量机算法结合的微电网负荷预测模型。方法中将鱼群算法应用于支持向量机的参数寻优中。仿真实验表明,与传统的支持向量机微网负荷预测结果对比,其对微网负荷的预测结果具有更高的精度,满足实际要求。

In order to meet the development of the Micro-grid and distributed energy, the load forecasting of the Micro-grid is a difficult problem in the research of power system planning and construction. Due to the uncertainty and strong uncertainty of the load of the Micro-grid, Loads of the conventional prediction methods cannot be directly used for micro grid load forecasting, according to the characteristics of micro grid, According to the characteristics of micro grid, Considering the influence of the weather factor and the type of the week about the Micro-grid, A model based on fish swarm algorithm and support vector machine algorithm of the Micro-grid load forecasting is proposed.The fish swarm algorithm is applied to the parameter optimization of support vector machine. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional support vector machine, the result of the load forecasting of the support vector machine has higher precision and meets the actual requirements.