山东省金融发展对产业结构升级的动态影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

An empirical analysis of dynamic impacts of the financial development on industrial upgrading——based on VAR model in Shandong Province

针对山东省金融发展对产业结构升级的动态影响的问题,选用VAR模型基于1979-2014年的数据进行实证分析,结果表明:金融发展、产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,但并不存在双向格兰杰因果关系,金融发展与产业结构升级之间没有形成良性互动发展机制。在短期内,金融规模的扩张能促进产业结构升级,但存在时滞性与长期推动力不足等问题:金融效率的提高无论在短期还是长期均不能促进产业结构升级,山东省金融资源错配导致的金融资本配置效率低下是造成这种现象的根源所在。

In view of the dynamic effect of fmancial development on the upgrading of the industrial structure in Shandong Province, the VAR model is used to analyze the data from 1979 to 2014. The results show that： there is a long-term stable co-integration relationship between financial development, industrial structure rationalization and industry structure, but there does not exist a two-way Granger causality. Between financial development and upgrading of the industrial structure, the benign and interactive development mechanism doesn＇t form. In the short term, the expansion of the financial scale can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, but there are delays and long-term lack of impetus and other issues and the improvement of financial efficiency can not promote industrial structure upgrade whether in the short or in a long term. In Shandong Province financial capital allocation efficiency is low due to the financial resources mismatch, which is where the root cause of this phenomenon.