基于灰色理论的公路工程施工造价动态控制研究

Research on the highway project construction cost dynamic control based on grey theory

为了研究基于过程的公路工程造价动态控制方法,文章利用灰色预测理论,建立公路工程项目施工阶段全生命周期造价控制模型,并以黑龙江省某高速公路施工阶段工程造价为实例,验证模型的可靠性。研究表明,该灰色预测模型GM(1,1)具有较高的精确度,不仅能够进行施工阶段工程造价的动态预测,而且能够实现公路工程项目施工造价的事前主动控制。

In order to study the highway project cost dynamic control method based on process,this paper proposes the theory of grey prediction by setting up the highway engineering project construction phase of the whole life cycle cost control model.And a highway construction project cost in Heilongjiang Province is taken as an example in order to verify the reliability of the model.Research shows that the grey forecast model GM（1,1）has high accuracy,which can make the construction stage engineering cost dynamic prediction,and can realize the beforehand active control of highway engineering project construction cost.