基于状态转移模型的光伏电站可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of PV Power Station Based on State Transition Model

针对光伏电站可靠性评估模型考虑因素单一的情况,提出了一种综合考虑光资源输入和系统故障的光伏电站可靠性评估模型。文中采用马尔科夫链描述光资源状态转移模型,利用统计数据求出转移概率;进而对系统故障进行状态划分,参照发电系统故障概率计算出相应概率;将两类故障进行排列组合形成光伏电站可靠性状态矩阵,在假设相互独立的前提下计算稳态概率;最后给出模型计算方法和步骤。该模型同时考虑了光资源输入和光伏电站可靠性两类因素,通过状态转移模型和概率模型模拟了光伏电站实际的光资源输入和可靠性状态,具备一定的实际应用价值。

In this paper, a reliability evaluation model of photovoltaic power station is proposed, in which the input of optical resources and the system error are considered at the same time. The state transi- tion model of the optical resources is described by using Markov chain, and the probability of transition is obtained by using the statistical data. Then the state of the system fault is divided and the corresponding probability is calculated by consulting the fault probability of power system. The two types of faults are arranged and combined to form reliability state matrices of photovoltaic power station, and the steady state probability is calculated on the assumption of mutual independence. Finally, the calculation methods and steps of the model are given. In the model, both the input of the optical resources and the reliability of the PV plant are taken into account. The state transition model and the probability model are used to simulate the actual input and reliability state of the PV power plant, which has wide practical application value.