深圳市海域麻痹性贝类毒素时空分析

Spatial-temporal scan statistic on the paralytic shellfish poison in Shenzhen

目的掌握广东省深圳市海域麻痹性贝类毒素时空分布特征,确定重点污染海域,为实现早期预警提供科学依据。方法通过对2015年深圳市海域3个监测点(斜吓湾、东涌和珍珠岛)的麻痹性贝类毒素含量监测数据进行径向基函数插值分析和时空扫描分析,掌握监测点周围的麻痹性贝类毒素含量的大体分布状况和时空聚集区域。结果由径向基函数插值结果可知,斜吓湾海域麻痹性贝类毒素含量相对较高,东涌和珍珠岛海域含量相对较低,而且斜吓湾、东涌和珍珠岛海域的麻痹性贝类毒素含量分布特点存在明显差异;时空扫描发现麻痹性贝类毒素在时间和空间上存在明显聚集性。2015年1~6月斜吓湾海域是最可能聚集海域(LLR=7.72,RR=5.59,P=0.000 83<0.001)。结论通过径向基函数插值和时空扫描分析方法可以获得麻痹性贝类毒素空间分布规律以及时空聚集特征。

Objective To explore the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the paralytic shellfish poison in Shenzhen City,in order to determine the key areas of pollution and provide the basis for early alert. Methods The paralytic shellfish poison monitor data from three monitoring sites in Shenzhen（ Xiexia Bay,Dongyong and Pearl Island） in2015 were analyzed using the radial basis function interpolation and spatial-temporal scan,and the general distribution and spatial-temporal clustering characteristics were preliminarily explored. Results According to radial basis function interpolation,the content of paralytic shellfish poison in Xiexia Bay was relatively high compared to Dongyong and Pearl Island. There were obvious differences in the distribution characteristics of the paralytic shellfish poison in Xiexia Bay,Dongyong and Pearl Island. Spatial-temporal scan presented space-time aggregation,from January 2015 to June 2015,the Xiexia Bay was most likely to be a aggregation region（ LLR = 7. 72, RR = 5. 59, P = 0. 000 83 0. 001）.Conclusion The spatial distribution regularity and spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of the paralytic shellfish poison could be obtained by the methods of radial basis function interpolation and spatial-temporal scan.