灰色预测模型在国内物流货运量预测中的应用

Application of Grey Forecasting Model in Domestic Logistics Freight Volume Forecast

由于在全国范围内对物流货运量的影响因素众多,数据较为庞大,统计过程较为复杂,所以存在"部分信息确定,部分信息不确定"的情况,可以运用灰色预测模型对国内物流货运量进行预测。文章建立灰色预测模型,分析该灰色预测模型对国内物流货运量预测是否有效,模型运用是否合理,在模型运用合理结果有效的前提下,对未来的国内物流货运量进行了预测。

Due to the large number of influencing factors of logistics freight in the whole country, the data is relatively large and the statistical process is more complicated. Therefore, there is a situation that＂some information is determined and some information is uncertain＂, and the gray forecasting model can be used to forecast the domestic logistics. This paper establishes the grey prediction model, analyzes whether the gray forecasting model is effective for the forecasting of domestic logistics and the rational use of the model, and forecasts the future domestic freight volume under the premise that the model is reasonable and the result is effective.