近50年安徽省气候生产潜力演变及粮食安全气候承载力评估

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION OF CLIMATIC POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITY AND ITS POPULATION CAPACITY OF FOOD SUPPLY IN ANHUI PROVINCE

安徽省是重要的粮食产区,在保障我国粮食安全中发挥着重要作用,研究该省气候生产潜力的演变特征,面向粮食安全分析其气候承载力具有显著的现实意义。本文从粮食生产与光温水等气候因子的关系出发,采用逐级订正的方法计算了安徽省的气候生产潜力及其变化特征,并根据不同生活水平下的粮食需求指标,分析了安徽省的气候承载力和剩余空间。结果表明,安徽省气候生产潜力的地理分异特征显著,其中北部高于南部、平原高于山区,高值区主要集中在沿淮及淮北地区,与耕种条件配合较好,有利于生产潜力的发挥。1961~2013年全省气候生产潜力基本呈一致下降趋势,近50年平均减少了约10%。安徽省目前粮食消费水平和结构属温饱型向小康型过渡阶段,在充分发挥气候生产潜力的前提下,全省气候资源所能承载的粮食产量均显著超过不同生活水平下的总需求量。小康水平下,气候承载力的相对剩余率总体呈东北向西南递减的趋势,除部分城市地区和山区外,全省大部地区气候承载力的剩余空间仍较富裕,能够较好的保障粮食需求。总的来看,由于安徽省光温水以及耕地等条件配合较好,气候承载力较高;虽然受太阳辐射影响,近年来气候生产潜力下降,但在保障未来小康社会的粮食安全方面,安徽省仍具有较好的气候承载力,粮食生产还有较大的提升空间。

As one of major grain production areas, Anhui Province plays an important role in ensuring food security in China. It is therefore critical to explore its climatic productive potential, and to assess its capacity of food supply in Anhui Province. In this paper, the step rectifying method was used to calculate the climatic potential productivity, based on the relationship between grain production and climatic factors such as solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation. The climatic capacity of food supply and its relative surplus rate were then analyzed, according to the food demand indexes under different living standards. The results showed that the climatic potential productivity exhibited a significantly spatial pattern, characterized by higher in the north and plains than the south and mountain areas. Further, the higher potential areas were mainly concentrated in the along and north region of the Huaihe River with dominance of plenty cultivated land resources. The coordination of climate and land resources was found to favor the utilization of climatic productive potential. During the period of 1961-2013, the climatic potential productivity showed a consistent decrease trend in Anhui Province. The reduction rate is provincially averaged at about 10% in the recent 50 years. In Anhui Province, the present food consumption level belongs to the transition stage from the subsistence type to well-off type. Under the premise of fully taking advantage of climatic potential productivity, the grain yield of the whole province can well satisfy the total food demand under different living standards. Specifically, for the well-off standards, the relative surplus rate of climatic capacity decreases from northeast to southwest, however the residual space of capacity is still considerable in the most parts of the province except few urban and mountainous areas, which can well guarantee the grain self-sufficient in the future development. Overall, the plenty solar radiation, heat, water and arable land resources and their coordination contribute to the high climatic capacity in Anhui Province. While the climatic potential productivity declines mainly induced by the reduction of solar radiation, the climate capacity can ensure food security in the future well-off, society and grain production has a larger promotion space in Anhui Province.