基于云模型的太湖流域农村水环境承载力动态变化特征分析——以太湖流域镇江区域为例

DYNAMICS OF RURAL WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY OF THE TAIHU LAKE BASIN BASED ON CLOUD MODEL——TAKING ZHENJIANG REGION OF TH TAIHU LAKE BASIN AS AN EXAMPLE

农村水环境承载力的定量估算及其动态变化特征研究有助于了解农村地区水资源供需平衡和水环境质量状况,为新农村建设规划和水环境可持续发展提供科学依据。本文以太湖流域镇江区域为研究对象,结合云模型改进模糊综合评价法,构建农村水环境承载力的PSR分析框架和评估指标体系,并结合雷达图、云模型发生器分析其动态变化特征及影响因素。结果表明:云模型能够较好地表征农村水环境承载力的变化特征;农村水环境承载力对太湖流域镇江区域的工农业废水排放、供水总量和治水投入的要求更高;2010~2014年太湖流域镇江区域农村水环境承载力基本保持稳中上升的趋势,但总体处于弱承载状态,且丹阳>丹徒>润州>京口。

Estimation of rural water environment carrying capacity and analysis of its dynamic characteristics would help to understand the equilibrium of supply-demand of rural water resources and the water environment quality status, thus to provide scientific advices of new rural construction planning and water environment sustainable development. The paper takes Zhenjiang Region of the Taihu Lake Basin as the study area, combined with cloud model to improve fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, PSR analytical frame of rural water environment carrying capacity and evaluation index system, and analysis of the dynamic characteristics and influencing factors with radar chart, cloud model generator. The results showed that： the cloud model has the advantage of dealing with the accurate value, which can reflect the volatility and randomness of the data; rural water environment carrying capacity of Taihu Lake Basin in Zhenjiang Region requires higher industry and agricultural wastewater discharge, total water supply and sewage control investment. The value of rural water environment carrying capacity in Zhenjiang Region in 2010-2014 remained a steady upward trend, but overall state is weak loading, and the value of various regions ranked as Danyang 〉 Dantu 〉 Runzhou 〉 Jingkou.