静态金融可计算一般均衡扩展模型构建及货币政策模拟

The Simulation of Monetary Policy and the Establishment of the Enlarged Static FCGE Model

文章将要素价格完全内生化,并通过引入"货币乘数"和"消费价格指数",构建了扩展的静态金融可计算一般均衡模型,模拟了货币发行规模变化和存款准备金水平的改变对我国宏观经济、各产业部门和价格水平的影响。结论表明:从货币角度看,价格水平变化并不单一地依赖于货币总量的改变,准备金对货币市场调控效果远强于货币发行,而无论何种宽松的货币政策,央行释放的货币与银行信贷资金增加余额不成比例,银行惜贷现象仍较为严重;从产业角度看,增加货币供给会提高劳动要素报酬而降低资本要素支付,无论采取宽松或是紧缩的货币政策,农业相较于其他产业,对货币的弹性较大。

This paper let the factors＇ price fully endogenous and introduces the ＂money multiplier＂ and ＂consumer price index＂ equations in the modeling process,we establish an extended static FCGE model and simulate the impact of changes in the currency issuing and reserve ratio on Chinese macro-economy and industries.The conclusion shows that price doesn＇ t only depends on the amount of currency issuing and the effect of reserve fund is far stronger than currency issuing,regardless of what kind of easy monetary policy,increasing of credit assets are less than money creation,a series of discredit problems aroused in the process of credit.In addition,increase the money supply will increase the labor remuneration and reduce the capital returns and no matter easy or tight monetary policy,compared to other industries,agriculture industry is more sensitive to the credit support policy.